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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.